A recent scientific analysis of public safety data from the Ministry of the Interior shows that, alongside these positive developments, the nature of crime itself is changing significantly: traditional crimes are on the decline—being replaced by more complex, less visible, and technology-based threats.
Between 2005 and 2025, the number of recorded criminal offences decreased by 52 per cent, homicides by 81 per cent, robberies by as much as 95 per cent, and thefts by 78 per cent.
A long-term improvement in the security situation has been observed, representing one of the most significant positive changes since independence.
However, alongside the decline in traditional crime, new trends are emerging: crime is changing form, becoming less visible but more sophisticated.
During the same period, the number of fraud cases increased by 25 per cent, and there was also a significant rise in cybercrimes and drug-related offences.
„Lithuania has become significantly safer, but security challenges are becoming increasingly complex and fragmented, while criminal activities are increasingly moving into the digital space, becoming more organised, and requiring different prevention and investigation measures. „Therefore, it is particularly important at this time to shift from a general response to targeted, data-driven risk management,“ says Minister of the Interior Vladislav Kondratovič.
According to the Minister of the Interior, the research has shown that the most complex public security problem is violent crime. Although their number is decreasing, their pattern remains stable: more than half of homicides are related to alcohol consumption, and the typical perpetrator is a socially vulnerable, middle-aged man. This confirms that alcohol control measures remain one of the most effective approaches to violence prevention.
Significant changes are also evident in public attitudes. Over the past two decades, the proportion of residents who feel safe has risen from 54 per cent to 89 per cent, and trust in the police in Lithuania has grown at the fastest rate in the European Union—the country currently ranks 9th in this regard. However, only about 44 percent of victims report incidents to law enforcement, leaving some criminal acts unnoticed.
Dr Eglė Vileikienė, a sociologist at the Ministry of the Interior who presented the analysis, notes that despite positive changes, we still lag behind other EU countries in some areas—particularly in homicide rates and the number of fatalities in traffic accidents and fires. This indicates that the main challenge today is not general insecurity, but rather specific structural risks closely linked to inappropriate or dangerous behaviour.
According to Minister Kondratovič, these indicators require a clear strategic reorientation: more attention must be paid to violence prevention, reducing harmful alcohol use, managing new forms of crime, and targeted interventions in high-risk groups, based on data and early risk identification.
This analysis is based on official data from the 2005–2025 period, including results from the Criminal Offences Registry, the State Data Agency, Eurostat, law enforcement agencies, and surveys of Lithuanian residents. In assessing the public safety situation, recorded crime, public perceptions of safety, trust in institutions, and victim behaviour were analysed.