Supply in all three cities has also increased significantly.
In Vilnius, where 666 dwellings (apartments and terraced houses) have been added to the stock of new dwellings, the increase in supply is significant even without the symbolic number. Added to the January’s increase, it represents around 40% of last year’s total growth, and the year-on-year increase in the range is already 21%. A total of 5,799 dwellings are currently available for Vilnius residents to choose from, with four projects and three phases of previous projects added to the range in February.
In Kaunas, 272 new apartments have appeared in the assortment. In the first two months alone, the choice of buyers in the capital city has increased by 447 units, which is more than three-quarters of the total number of new housing units delivered in 2024. In February, two new projects and four phases of previously launched projects were delivered, and the total supply has increased by almost 20% since the beginning of the year, reaching 1,177 units.
The range of the primary market in Klaipėda also jumped in February, with 150 apartments in two projects and one stage being added to the market. At the end of February, there were 559 dwellings in the port city – 14% more than at the beginning of the year and 6% more than a year earlier.
Citus Head of Analysis, Eglė Savostė:
We are observing a comprehensive revitalisation of the primary market. It is encouraging that the first signs of this trend have also appeared in the markets of the other two major cities, as previously, we could only talk about Vilnius. If these signs are not just a one-time occurrence, we will witness a significant surge in activity across all major cities – something we haven’t seen in a long time. It is also reassuring that, at least in Vilnius, developers’ efforts to provide sufficient supply yield results, helping to keep average prices under control.
In February, even a statistical correction of prices was recorded in the capital: the average prices of the apartments on offer decreased by 0.86%, from EUR 3,585 to EUR 3,554 per sqm. According to Citus analysts, this situation is due to a significant new supply of economy-class apartments, but the statistics show that prices are stable – since the beginning of the year, they have increased by 2.36% and by 4.71% in the last 12 months.
In Kaunas, average house prices rose slightly faster: at the end of the last month, they reached EUR 2,882 per sqm, which was 2.82% higher than a month earlier and already 11.02% higher than a year earlier.
Savostė continues:
Meanwhile, in Klaipėda, we have seen a real price explosion. Due to the new supply of premium class and very high prices, the overall average price level has jumped almost to the level of the capital city. In February, the average price per sqm in the currently available apartments was as high as EUR 3,261. Of course, in a relatively shallow market, where the supply of barely more than half a thousand dwellings is available, such a jump was unprecedented, 39–46% compared to the previous month and the year before. Certainly, such a change in supply cannot be seen as a price increase, but it will unbalance the statistics and take time to even out if supply does not fill up faster than usual. So, at least for a while, we will see more Vilnius-like prices in the port city of Klaipėda.
The surge in December salaries boosted affordability in the last quarter
Savostė points out that monthly salaries go up at the end of each year when many companies pay annual bonuses, supplements, other allowances and dividends. Therefore, statistically, the average salary for the whole quarter also increases.
She adds: ‘Another good news is that the CITHAI Housing Affordability Index, calculated by Citus analysts, improved by double digits in last year’s last quarter. This was not only due to higher December salary figures but also to the decline in the Euribor’.
According to preliminary statistics**, a single person earning an average wage and buying a home with a loan (CITHAI I) can currently afford 36.81 sqm in Vilnius, 39.25 sqm in Kaunas and 43.69 sqm in Klaipėda. A couple buying a home (CITHAI II) in the same circumstances could afford 69.94 sqm in Vilnius, 74.58 sqm in Kaunas and 83.01 sqm in Klaipėda.
In the last quarter of last year, the CITHAI in Vilnius grew by 11.94% compared to the previous period and by 22.23% compared to the same period last year. In Kaunas, these changes in the CITHAI index amounted to 9.77% and 18.78%, respectively, and in Klaipėda it was 11.32% and 27.13%.
Eglė Savostė predicts that wages will statistically decrease in the first quarter of this year compared to December, returning to ‘normal’ levels. However, there should still be an increase: job appraisals are carried out at the beginning of the year, and salary increases are discussed. In March, we have also seen another decision by the European Central Bank to continue on the path of lowering base rates, which should lead to a further reduction in the Euribor rate. In Vilnius and Kaunas, the CITHAI index may decrease slightly by 1–3% in the next quarter.
However, in Klaipėda, due to the exceptionally sharp jump in price levels in February, CITHAI will likely fall by up to 20%, although the genuine change will not be as significant.
The Citus representative predicts that in Vilnius and Kaunas, the growth of the last quarter will balance the decline of the index for the first quarter of 2025, and the average affordability level for the first half of this year should remain slightly positive – over 4% compared to the previous period.
*Citus analysts calculate preliminary transactions for purchasing apartments and terraced houses to assess the demand in the primary housing market. Terraced houses are included in this figure because, technically, most terraced houses are classified as apartments and are relevant for homebuyers. Also, the current month’s result does not exclude cancellations of market-preliminary contracts, which are usually related to previously concluded transactions and, therefore, do not reflect the current month’s demand. Sometimes, the sales result is inflated by the simultaneous aggregation of previous months’ sales in certain projects so that the inflated sales are recorded in a given month. However, larger clusters are recorded, and the data are continuously updated so that the discrepancies even out in the longer term.
**Wage statistics provided by public authorities, which affect the CITHAI affordability index calculated by Citus analysts, are delayed in publication, so some of the data are assessed based on short-term forecasts.