The recovery and growth of the real estate market were already visible in the second half of 2024, when the base interest rate started to fall. Therefore, looking at the seemingly spectacular jump in the first quarter of 2025, it is important to remember that the market during the same period last year was stagnating and lagging behind its typical performance.
Residents chose more expensive assets
In the first quarter of 2025, 1,547 apartments were sold in the capital. This is twice as many as in the same period last year, when 704 apartments were sold. According to market data and Darnu Group's calculations, the strongest growth in the first quarter of 2025 was seen in the sales of high-end and mid-range properties, while sales of economy-class apartments accounted for a noticeably smaller proportion.
In January, 624 apartments were purchased in the capital, in February – 480 apartments, and in March – 443 apartments. The majority of sales – 47.5% – in the first quarter of 2025 were of mid-range apartments. This represents an increase of 8.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Economy-class assets accounted for 38% of sales in the first quarter of this year, a decrease of 17 percentage points compared to the same period last year. At the same time, high-end sales grew by 8.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2024, reaching a share of 14.5%.
The average price of real estate in the capital's market during the first three months of this year reached EUR 3,500 per square meter, 4% higher than a year ago At the same time, the average price per square meter for high-end properties remained stable, growing by just over 1.5% to EUR 6,300.
Builders in the capital are currently offering around 4,000 apartments to buyers and are optimistic, having added 1,297 apartments in the first quarter of 2025. A significant portion of the available units consists of 306 apartments in Darnu Group's Sakai project.
Sakai becomes the most popular project in the capital
The popularity of Darnu Group's Sakai project has significantly impacted the supply of high-end real estate and driven sales growth. In the first quarter of this year, apartment sales in the project near the Neris River and Karoliniškės Landscape Reserve accounted for almost 61% of all high-end apartment sales.
In the first phase of the Sakai project, Darnu Group offered 306 apartments to buyers, nearly half of which – 138 – have already been sold. The exceptional sales performance was largely influenced by very successful pre-sales launched at the end of last year. These were included in official statistics in the first quarter of this year, following the start of official sales.
Most residents who purchased property in the project chose two-room (52%) and three-room (39%) apartments. Ground-floor apartments with private courtyards were especially popular, making up about half of all sales. Not only couples and families of all ages but also investors, who are actively returning to the market, showed interest in the new property. Their optimism was driven by the improving lending conditions and the increased supply of such properties.
Meanwhile, in the recently completed exclusive Paupys district, where the company has built 904 apartments across 10 phases, only 9 apartments remain unsold, some of which are already reserved. In the first quarter of this year, the company sold 5 apartments in this project.
Moderate but stable growth is forecast
The preconditions for growth in the property market remain unchanged, similar to those that fuelled the market's momentum in the second half of last year. They include positive economic conditions, falling interest rates, rising personal incomes, high consumer expectations, and improved housing affordability. The positive context for growth is further supported by the accumulation of unmet housing demand amid a stagnant market over the past few years.
Although the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, unless a black swan event occurs, the residential real estate market is expected to grow by around 25% in 2025, with sales returning to the long-term 10-year average of approximately 4,000 apartments per year. There are no strong indications of rapid property price growth at the moment; prices are expected to rise at a moderate pace of around 5% per year.