However, intuition does not help in predicting success – it requires data, an understanding of urban development and a little courage.
Investing in real estate is considered one of the safest forms of long-term investment, which is even guaranteed by the legal system. The Civil Code guarantees property rights and provides legal protection, ensuring that owners can trust their property and dispose of it as they see fit. This stability provides confidence that investments in real estate are protected and legally protected. Meanwhile, other investment instruments, such as stocks, bonds or cryptocurrencies, can be much more volatile, requiring constant market monitoring and specialised knowledge.
When investing in value growth, it is essential not only to calculate but also to imagine: what will this neighbourhood look like in 5–10 years? What kind of people will it attract? Will a community form here, or will there be a high rate of resident turnover? Such questions help identify potential issues before they become apparent. Investing in a property to sell it at a profit in a few years requires a data-based assessment of the neighbourhood. In my opinion, three main factors determine value growth:
· development potential – infrastructure, business investment and jobs, educational institutions;
· competitive environment – supply size and dynamics;
· market cycle – changes in housing prices over a specific period.
Such questions help to view investments strategically rather than from a short-term perspective.
Price changes or ROI figures alone are not enough to make an informed investment decision. It is necessary to examine the underlying reasons for price increases, including municipal infrastructure plans, the expansion of educational institutions, competitive supply (are there ten similar projects in the vicinity?), the city’s strategy and even changes in the population.
Often, these changes signal potential increases in value before they are reflected in market prices.
Market attractiveness and the rate of value growth are closely linked to the balance between supply and demand. Citus data shows that over the next five years, property values in developing neighbourhoods – Žirmūnai, Naujamiestis, Vilkpėdė and Naujininkai – may increase by 30–40%, while in mature neighbourhoods such as Senamiestis, Antakalnis and a significant portion of residential areas, the increase is expected to be about 20–25%.
For example, according to data available to Citus analysts, the three districts that have seen the most significant increase in value to date are Vilkpėdė, Užupis (including Paupys), and Šnipiškės. In Vilkpėdė, new-build flats cost around EUR 1,565 per sqm in 2018 and EUR 3,920 per sqm in 2025, indicating an approximate 150% price increase. Eight new projects – comprising approximately 1,160 units – have been developed, and four projects with 835 units are currently under development. Since 2018, the prices of new residential units in Užupis and Paupys have increased by approximately 136%, and in Šnipiškės by 129%.
Meanwhile, neighbouring districts that are likely to see limited growth in value in the future include Antakalnis, Žvėrynas and Naujoji Vilnia. The first two already have high price levels and limited development potential. Naujoji Vilnia lacks a coherent urban vision and is dominated by old apartment buildings.
Areas with the most significant potential for future real estate value growth in Vilnius are becoming increasingly apparent. These include Naujamiestis, Žirmūnai and the northern part of Naujininkai. One of the city's most ambitious projects, the conversion of the railway station, will significantly change Naujamiestis and Naujininkai. In Žirmūnai, the conversion of the bus depot and the city’s ambition to implement the ‘15-minute city’ concept are essential. In Naujininkai, whose northern part borders the city centre and the Old Town, prices are still lower, but several higher-end projects are already planned.
Market activity is currently supported by expectations of lower interest rates and buyers’ confidence that property values will continue to rise. The first half of 2025 will continue to be a period of activity.
The best investment often seems risky – until it happens. The market will always have its cycles, and numbers will always have their logic, but success is not determined solely by data. The most important thing is not to catch the ‘perfect moment’ but to understand when that moment is in your life. Market conditions change, interest rates fluctuate, but life does not stand still. Therefore, it is important not to procrastinate but to make a decision when there is a clear need – then housing becomes a solution, not a problem.