Vilnius – peak summer activity and a reversal in the ratio
Ugnė Žiogelė, Citus real estate analyst:
Demand for housing in the capital this year has fluctuated little and is, on average, 69% higher than last year, when approximately 307 residential properties were sold per month. Demand also increased throughout the summer, with 417 transactions recorded in June and 498 in July. The beginning of the year was hectic, especially January (732 transactions), which increased the annual average.
She notes another distinctive feature of August: the ratio of economic and medium-class sales changed significantly. Only 187 economy-class homes were sold during the month, accounting for just 36% of all sales, while 309 medium-class homes were sold, accounting for 59% of all sales.
Žiogelė explains this as a possible short-term shift in the focus of different buyer segments:
It is likely that economy-class buyers were more active on vacation and postponed their decision until a later date, while new projects attracted medium-class home buyers in this segment. Compared to the previous month, sales in both segments differ by approximately 80–100 units in both directions (264 economy-class and 201 medium-class homes were sold in July).
Do Klaipėda residents live better than Kaunas residents? Different moods in these cities in August
Meanwhile, July and August were the busiest months of the year in Klaipėda. Although last month was 30% more modest than the previous one, when 118 new homes were sold, the average for these two months (99 units) was almost three times higher than the result for the first half of the year (36.8) due to the high quality of supply. The range of premium-class properties in the port city currently stands at 34% (in June – 47%), while demand for this class this year averages about 32% of all transactions (in July – 65%).
In terms of the total number of transactions, Klaipėda has surpassed Kaunas for the second month in a row: in August, 72 flats (95 in July), terraced houses and lofts found new owners in Kaunas. As an outcome, the result is already lagging behind the annual average – over the past eight months, demand in Lithuania’s second-largest city has reached around 102 units.
Ugnė Žiogelė notes that Kaunas is experiencing a shortage of quality, variety and affordable housing, which is why the primary market is slower than in other major cities in the country.
For example, supply and demand are not balanced across classes: in August, Kaunas had only 21% of medium-class supply and 19% of premium-class supply, whereas sales were distributed differently, with 35% being medium-class transactions and 7% being premium-class transactions. The supply of economy-class properties accounted for 59% of the total market, while demand accounted for 58%.
Supply and prices – stable
In Vilnius, according to statistics monitored by Citus analysts, buyers had a choice of 5,682 dwellings last month. Due to active demand and a growth in housing supply (272 new dwellings in August) that was twice as slow as the annual average (555 units), the range decreased by 5.8% compared to July. However, it was 6.4% higher than at the beginning of the year and 6.1% higher than a year ago.
Some 52% of this inventory consists of economy-class homes, 35% of medium-class homes, and 12% of premium-class homes.
The average price of flats on offer in the capital reached EUR 3,796 per sqm (+0.2% per month) and was 9.34% higher than at the beginning of the year and 12.92% higher than a year ago.
In Kaunas, the supply currently stands at 1,278 new housing units – 2% more than in July, but 29.9% more than at the beginning of the year and 24% more than a year earlier. During the month, 76 new homes were offered on the market, 48 of which were flats; 28 new terraced houses are awaiting attention.
Moreover, in Kaunas, a symbolic price correction of −1% was recorded in August. Currently, the average price of a new flat is EUR 2,995.63 per sqm, representing a 6.04% increase over the first eight months of this year and a 10.87% increase over the past twelve months.
Over the month, supply in Klaipėda grew relatively fastest – by 11%, or 121 new flats. It was also more than twice as high as at the beginning of the year and a third higher than at the same time last year (490 and 550, respectively). As mentioned above, the range consists of 34% premium housing, 40% economy housing and 26% medium-class housing.
In Klaipėda, due to a slight decrease in the supply of premium-class properties, prices also adjusted symbolically, falling by 0.73% to an average of EUR 3,102 per sqm for flats on offer. This limit is still 33.02% higher than at the beginning of the year and 36.95% higher than 12 months ago, due to the large number of costly flats in new premium projects that supplemented the supply in February. Excluding these, according to preliminary Citus data, the average price of flats in Klaipėda is EUR 2,772 per sqm.
In August, Citus concluded 56 transactions: 26 in Vilnius, 7 in Kaunas, 21 in Druskininkai and 2 in Nida. Currently, the company’s portfolio includes 140 flats in the capital, 57 lofts in Kaunas, 163 flats in Druskininkai and 5 flats in Nida.
Growing affordability and, perhaps, a new trend in Vilnius
Rapid wage growth of 8.7% per annum across Lithuania, a stable Euribor interest rate of just over 2% and recently stable housing prices have led to a slight but steady improvement in housing affordability. Other factors are currently having no significant impact on this. The housing affordability index calculated by Citus analysts, the CITHAI index**, rose in Vilnius and Kaunas, but declined in Klaipėda.
A person earning an average salary and buying a home with a loan (CITHAI I) could afford 37.32 sqm in Vilnius, 41.11 sqm in Kaunas and 41.18 sqm in Klaipėda at the end of the second quarter. A couple buying a home (CITHAI II) under the same circumstances would be able to purchase 70.91 sqm in Vilnius, 78.11 sqm in Kaunas and 78.24 sqm in Klaipėda.
In Vilnius, these indices were 1.93% better than in the previous quarter and 17.70% better than a year ago; in Kaunas, they were 3.76% and 19.45% better, respectively. In Klaipėda, affordability declined by 4.81% during the quarter (0.99% in the previous quarter), even after accounting for the statistical price surge in February; however, it was 12.74% better than at the same time last year.
The six-month Euribor interest rate, most relevant to homebuyers, remained unchanged during the quarter and currently stands at 2.074%. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its base rate once more this year, which will also reduce the Euribor.
This year’s trend in Vilnius which, according to the analyst, may become established in the long term, is an increase in demand for the smallest, one-bedroom flats and the largest, four-bedroom flats.
Ugnė Žiogelė concludes:
Last year, there was considerable discussion about shrinking living spaces. We can see that over the previous period, covering 2024–2025, demand for both the smallest and largest homes has increased, despite the size of these homes remaining constant. This is understandable, as people are becoming more confident in making decisions that meet their expectations as conditions improve; however, they still need to consider housing prices and their financial capabilities. As a result, there has been a slight, albeit insignificant, decline in demand for intermediate two– to three-room flats. We will see in the future whether this trend will continue.
According to Žiogelė, this is likely due to improving affordability, which has been driven by falling Euribor rates, rising wages and relatively stable housing prices in recent times. On the one hand, more economy-class buyers seeking compact housing may enter the market and decide to purchase housing they had previously postponed; on the other hand, families with greater space requirements may also be able to meet these needs.
Since the beginning of 2024, the average relative demand for one-room flats has grown by approximately 4.5 percentage points, while the demand for four-room flats has grown by approximately 4 percentage points.
*When assessing demand in the primary housing market, Citus analysts calculate preliminary transactions for the purchase of flats and terraced houses. Terraced houses are included in this figure because, formally, most terraced houses are classified as flats and are relevant to home buyers. Additionally, preliminary contract terminations, which are typically related to previously concluded transactions and therefore do not reflect demand in the current month, are not excluded from the current month’s results. Sometimes sales results increase due to the simultaneous consolidation of previous months’ sales, so that increased sales are recorded for a specific month, but larger ‘fluctuations’ are recorded, and the data is constantly updated, so that discrepancies are evened out over a more extended period.
**Wage statistics provided by government agencies, which affect the CITHAI affordability index calculated by Citus analysts, are published with a delay.