During the first nine months of this year, 4,739 transactions were concluded in the capital, representing a 94.5% increase over the same period last year and a 28.5% increase over the entire year.
The Kaunas housing market also experienced an upturn, with 119 transactions concluded during the month and 286 during the quarter. Although the figures are five times lower than in Vilnius, Kaunas’s quarterly result was 31% better than in Q2 and 49% better than in July–September last year. The number of transactions in Kaunas (933) for all three quarters exceeded the same period in 2024 by 56.5% and the result for the whole year by 18%.
Citus real estate analyst Ugnė Žiogelė:
There’s no need to repeat that this year marks the recovery of the housing market. However, the consistency of this year’s results – especially in Vilnius – suggests that even seasonality may no longer be applicable. Lithuania has developed a structural demand for housing, driven by a growing city, rising living standards, a prolonged market stagnation and, ultimately, the Lithuanian desire to own a home – all of which are shaping long-term demand.
In Klaipėda, the third quarter of this year ended without fanfare. After very active summer months that even surpassed Kaunas’s results, the market calmed down somewhat, with 44 transactions recorded (compared to 80 in August). However, demand for the quarter (242 transactions) was the best in the last five years, and perhaps even in the history of the port city’s housing market. In the second quarter, 73 transactions were registered and in the Q3 2024, 110 transactions were registered. This year, from January to September, as many as 463 sales were recorded in Klaipėda, compared to 196 during the same period last year, which is 2.4 times less (271 in all of 2024). Žiogelė:
Klaipėda stands out this year with its increased activity. Over the past few years, 20–30 transactions were typically concluded per month in the primary market of this city. This year, the average number of transactions is 51, approximately twice the number from last year. This activity is due not only to increased affordability but also to a more abundant and higher quality supply.
Supply: fragility in Vilnius, insufficiency in Kaunas and imbalance in Klaipėda
Last month, the supply of new homes in Vilnius reached 5,541 units. This was 2.5% less than a month earlier – the housing stock in the capital has been declining for four consecutive months. The supply consisted of 5,342 units at the end of last year and 5,350 a year ago. However, according to experts, the current balance is sufficient with supply meeting demand in all segments, although the situation remains quite sensitive. Žiogelė explains further:
On the one hand, supply growth is sufficient, with 4,838 homes expected to be delivered to the market this year (399 in September), averaging 538 per month. This reflects the current demand and is not a speculative construction boom; supply is growing organically, not exponentially. However, it is not accumulating: current sales rates are among the highest in recent years, so new supply is being effectively absorbed rather than accumulating.
In the capital, the average monthly increase in supply is only 2% higher than the average monthly demand.
September ended in Kaunas with 1,261 homes listed. Supply in this city decreased by 1.33% over the month, but increased by 13.2% over the year and by 28.2% since the beginning of the year. However, Žiogelė emphasises that there is a particularly striking imbalance in Kaunas: a significant shortage of the most affordable (up to EUR 100,000–120,000) and high-quality, high-standard medium-class housing, for which demand still significantly exceeds supply (on average, 38% vs 24%). According to her, there is still insufficient diversity in the housing market in Kaunas, despite the average monthly supply being 30% higher than the average monthly demand.
The situation in Klaipėda is different. Over the month, supply contracted by 5.6% (no new projects appeared on the market last month) to 695 new homes, although it has grown by 41.8% since the beginning of the year and by 35.5% over the past year. However, in Klaipėda, the country’s third-largest city, supply appears to be well-matched to buyer demand, which has increased here. A change in the supply structure at the beginning of the year led to price increases, surpassing those in Kaunas.
Citus analysts estimate that in all cities, approximately 20% of the supply is illiquid – homes that have been on the market for 24 months or longer.
Prices – stable on a month-to-month basis, but have surged since the beginning of the year
Žiogelė summarises:
The number of transactions in all cities has been high in the last quarter, and the average price per square metre of apartments on offer has maintained stable growth, indicating that demand at higher price levels remains sustainable. This signals that prices are no longer responding to short-term fluctuations in demand and that the market is more mature.
In the capital, the average price of apartments on offer increased by just 0.43% over the month, to EUR 3,812.5 per sqm. However, since the beginning of the year, their growth has reached 9.81%, and since the end of September last year, it has increased to 12.63%. According to Žiogelė, the market has recently been operating in ‘sports’ mode rather than in deficit mode: prices are being driven up not by scarcity, but by constant high demand pressure on a relatively large but slowly balancing supply.
According to Žiogelė, the realistic scenario in the current situation is a slowdown and stabilisation of price growth. Over the last four months, prices in the capital have risen by an average of 0.27%, and over the whole year by an average of around 1%. However, the potential for price growth stems from the balance between supply and demand being very fragile. If the economic situation remains stable and demand remain high, any slight slowdown in new supply could lead to a price increase. The current sizeable stock is deceptive – it is constantly being ‘bought up’, especially in the medium-class range housing segment.
In Kaunas, monthly price growth was also modest – 0.39%, to EUR 3,007 per sqm. Over the first nine months prices rose by 6.45%, and over the twelve months by 7.56%. In Klaipėda, the monthly change was 0.83%; since the beginning of the year, 34.12%; and 37.85% over the year. At the end of September, the average price of apartments on offer in Klaipėda reached EUR 3,128 per sqm. It remained significantly higher on average due to the large proportion of premium segment apartments in the range.
Market balance – who holds the bargaining power?
Citus analysts also assesses the market balance — the relationship between demand and supply, as well as changes in supply over time — factors that can tilt the scales of bargaining power in the housing market either towards buyers or sellers.
In Vilnius, the market balance indicator has been hovering near the threshold of a seller’s market since the beginning of the year. Examining different segments, the economy-class market is the most balanced, while the medium-class range segment has shifted significantly towards sellers. Demand for medium– class range housing in Vilnius has grown faster than supply — nearly 2.5 times more mid-range homes were purchased in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, making it the fastest-growing segment in popularity. This market situation creates conditions for faster price growth in this category. Although the overall structure of supply has helped keep mid-range prices relatively stable, this year has seen more intensive price increases at the level of individual projects.
In Kaunas, the market balance indicator was also close to the seller’s market threshold at the start of the year. A particularly active first half of the year led the city to enter a seller’s market in full force. However, as supply began to replenish more rapidly, the third quarter has seen a return to a balanced market.
What to expect in the next six months
The decline in Euribor interest rates this year has not only led to an increase in transactions, but has also shaken up the mortgage market. People who were waiting for a better situation in the housing market saved their money and returned to the market when the interbank lending rate approached the 2% mark. According to data from the Bank of Lithuania, more than EUR 323 million in housing loans were issued in July, which is a record number. Žiogelė predicts more changes:
Euribor interest rates are expected to fall further by the end of the first quarter of next year, so the number of transactions in the housing market should stabilise then. However, the entry of second-tier pension fund money into the housing segment and the Bank of Lithuania’s proposed changes to responsible lending provisions, if approved, could provide a short-term but fairly strong boost next year.
*When assessing demand in the primary housing market, Citus analysts calculate preliminary transactions for the purchase of apartments and terraced houses. Terraced houses are included in this figure because, formally, most terraced houses are classified as apartments and are relevant to home buyers. Additionally, preliminary contract terminations, which are typically related to previously concluded transactions and therefore do not reflect demand in the current month, are not excluded from the current month’s results. Sometimes, sales results increase due to the simultaneous consolidation of previous months’ sales, so that increased sales are recorded for a specific month, but larger fluctuations are recorded, and the data is constantly updated, so that discrepancies are evened out over a more extended period.