Mačiulis assesses Trump's plans for EU tariffs: the impact would be marginal

2025 m. vasario 28 d. 12:16
Lrytas.lt
As United States (US) President Donald Trump announces plans to impose tariffs on European Union (EU) products, there are doubts about whether Washington will take such a decision. Nerijus Mačiulis, Chief Economist at Swedbank, does not think Trump will impose tariffs on the EU. Moreover, he believes that the impact would be minimal even if such an action were taken.
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Mačiulis explains that Trump has not yet signed any order to impose tariffs on the EU, so it is doubtful whether such action will be taken. He believes that the purpose of such threats is to provoke negotiations and force the EU to reduce the import tariffs imposed on US cars.
„It is essential to stress that there are no tariffs yet and not even a presidential order. And this threat has been repeated for the umpteenth time in the last two months. It is not something that happened yesterday or today that we did not know. Remember that the 25% tariff order for Mexico and Canada has already been signed, with the goods and everything. Yesterday, Trump said only two sentences,“ Mačiulis told Elta.
„Trump's primary goal is to negotiate and to get the EU to reduce import tariffs. For example, the EU taxes American cars at 10%, and the US taxes European cars at 2.5%.
The economist said that even if tariffs were introduced, their impact on the Euro zone would not be significant. However, such trade restrictions would mean that the Euro zone economy would not grow this year.
„Even if a 10% tariff on all goods and 25% on those goods that the EU exports most to the US, such as cars, pharmaceuticals, some foodstuffs, would be imposed. The impact on the Euro zone economy would be one percentage point per year. This means that the current projected growth would not be there,“ the economist said.
„The EU exports little to the US. While about 25% of Mexico's GDP comes from exports to the US and 20% from Canada, the biggest share is German exports – 3.8% of GDP in Europe. Lithuania's is 2.6% of GDP. So even if all exports were taxed at a high rate, the impact would be minimal“, he said.
On Wednesday, US President Trump announced that tariffs on EU products would amount to 25% of GDP overall.
Mr Trump announced that the tariffs would apply to a wide range of products, including cars, adding that the EU „really took advantage of us“.
Since taking office in January, Mr Trump has announced across-the-board tariffs on US neighbours Canada and Mexico, accusing them of illegal migration and fentanyl smuggling. However, he has subsequently postponed the entry into force of such tariffs.
When asked about the decision to suspend the tariffs, Mr Trump said that he was not suspending the tariffs, adding that the planned taxes would come into force on 2 April.

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