This is just the beginning
What we see today is a symptom of the realignment of global forces. Tariffs are just the beginning. The real danger is what could happen in the European domestic market when the US pulls back from the world with yet another protectionist barrier.
If America closes down, surplus production that used to go to the US will now have to find a new market. And it will find it in the EU—an open, economically strong but politically sluggish market.
Chinese, Indian, and other Asian products flow to Europe. In some cases, through the EU's neighbours, in others, through legal trade channels, but the result is the same: the EU will become a repository of global overproduction. While some call this an 'indirect effect', it will, in fact, be a direct hit to our production, competitiveness, and jobs.
Worst of all, the EU has not yet shown any sign of being ready for it. Ursula von der Leyen talks of a united but „proportionate response,“ but there is no response to possible third-country dumping yet. And that should be no less worrying than Trump's tariffs themselves.
More importantly, this will not be a coincidence. This is a consistent policy.
He considers the world a threat
Trump returned to power not as a voice of protest but as an ideological project. He aims to overhaul the global trading system, bringing production back to the US, reducing dependence on allies, and abandoning international norms that, in his view, are 'bad for America'. And this is not a one-off declaration.
It is a consistent isolationism that has long since transcended Trump's personality. His logic is based on the fact that the world is a threat, not an opportunity, that allies are competitors, not partners, and that the US must 'reclaim' its place, even if that means deliberately distancing itself from the world.
Therefore, even if Europe hopes that these tariffs are temporary or that they will be adjusted during the negotiations, we need to understand that they are not temporary. They are a direction.
And suppose the US itself – through Congress, business, the courts and, most of all, the Republican electorate – does not stop this course. In that case, isolationism will become the primary American economic policy in this decade.
And what are we in Lithuania doing in the meantime?
While the world is building trade barriers, our rulers are building tax reforms—not strengthening defence, not investing in exports or competitiveness—but preparing to raise taxes on the private sector. And some in the governing coalition are speaking out, as we hear first-hand: „We need to implement the programme, not to finance defence.“
The content of that programme is also worth discussing. The development of social welfare and the expansion of the public sector in the face of an economic storm is not only ill-timed but also dangerous policy. Especially when that welfare has to be financed at the expense of business competitiveness. At a time when even traditionally conservative Germany is loosening the fiscal brakes to invest in infrastructure and defence, Lithuania is moving in the opposite direction. When the economy stagnates, it puts more pressure on it.
That is why it is not just about tariffs. It is about the urgent need for Lithuania and the EU as a whole to review their economic security policy.
We must:
– activate the protective mechanisms against third-country dumping;
– support our producers on export markets;
– and – above all – not tax the backbone of the industry when it is precisely what needs to be strengthened.
Once the dumping is in place, the companies lose orders, and the domestic market becomes overcrowded, so it is too late to talk.