On Friday, he shared his latest insights into the situation in Ukraine on his social media account.
"Many analysts note that Ukraine is defending itself honourably and that Russia's first actions did not deal a crushing blow. However, the first day is seen as a prelude, as Russia has not yet used most of the forces that were concentrated around Ukraine", Kojala assessed.
According to him, three main directions of attack are currently visible.
"From Belarus towards Kyiv; from Crimea towards the north; and also towards Kharkiv. It is in the vicinity of Kharkiv that intense fighting is said to be taking place. As a result, both sides are undoubtedly suffering losses (it is said that Russia may have lost around 30 tanks, seven fighter jets; Ukraine has lost at least 137 soldiers).
Ukraine's anti-aircraft systems - one of Russia's first targets - do not seem to have been eliminated yet, including in defence of the capital. But in the air, Russia has a significant advantage. That is why one of the biggest battles is being fought over the Antonov airport in the vicinity of Kyiv, which, according to this morning's reports, is still under the control of the Ukrainian army (it was lost for some time yesterday)", the expert said on Facebook.
According to Mr Kojala, one of the possible scenarios for the next few days could be that Russian special forces would seek to take control of one of Kyiv's airports and create conditions for at least 10 000 paratroopers to land.
"Cyber-attacks, sabotage of energy networks would accompany this. The operation aims to overthrow the Ukrainian political authorities. This is according to journalist Michael Weiss, citing Ukrainian sources.
Ukraine is defended by a national army that is one of the largest in Europe - but Russia definitely has the upper hand. That is why there are other forms of resistance alongside it. As recently as January, the US was openly discussing future support for the Ukrainian resistance, which would make it much more difficult to control the territories occupied by Russia and would increase the costs. Today is the virtual NATO Summit, strengthening deterrence on NATO's eastern flank. The US is deploying an additional 7,000 troops and equipment in Europe.
For now, the additional forces will arrive in Germany (on Tuesday, Biden announced 800 troops will arrive in the Baltics, some of whom arrived in Latvia yesterday, as well as the landing of armed US F35s in Šiauliai, and the extension of the rotation of the US heavy 3-66 Armor battalion in Lithuania).
The military situation makes it difficult to obtain reliable and contextualised information about the events, so assessments should be cautious," wrote Kojala.