On the one hand, it is easy to understand those who made wrong predictions. It was based on the state of the Ukrainian army from 2013 to 2015. What the army, ravaged by corruption and theft, looked like then is not worth repeating. But now, eight years later, Ukraine has prepared itself for serious battles is a phoenix from the ashes. Even military experts did not believe it was possible.
The Kremlin's propaganda, which for eight years did not let go of the subject of Ukraine, was also wrong, openly mocking President Poroshenko's reform of the army. They sniggered. Now, on the battlefield, it is seeing the results of the changes.
The lightning war, the meaning of which is known even to kindergarten children, has been transformed into phases of fighting, the outcome of which has become completely unclear to the attacking side. This is clearly reflected in Moscow's propaganda. There are grumblings, although the decisions of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces are still considered non-negotiable.
The idea of setting up a military council for the defence of the state, general mobilisation, putting the country's economic life on a war footing and launching a full-scale siege of Ukraine as an enemy with all the means used in wartime, in the air, on the ground and the sea, is being raised privately.
The logic of the invader is clear – if you win, they will hate you, they will continue the guerrilla war, but they will respect you; if you lose, it is only a matter of time before you are completely destroyed. Emotional tensions rising to the melting point of metal are no longer possible with sudden ceasefires or treaties, of which there are countless wars in history. From the front lines and the omnidirectional arrows, it looks as if the decisive clash is being prepared in the Donbas.
Kyiv is asking the West for heavy weapons. It has already started to deliver. Its own military experts are urging Russia to start a „track war“ on the model of the Second World War. The name „special military operation“ will soon be dropped from the Kremlin's official tribune. Instead, it will be declared – war is war, and everything is war.
Personally, I am against NATO countries directly defending Ukraine against Russia with their armies. But if this were finally decided, I would help those fighting against aggression to the best of my ability.
In fact, six months ago, I did not even dream that such a time might come. It is pointless to ask whether it could have been otherwise, for example, to start negotiations. Maybe it could have been, but it is what it is. Of course, this does not mean that negotiations are no longer worth talking about.
Russia publicly announced a few days ago that Ukrainian negotiators had even agreed in writing to consider the neutrality of their state. I have not heard a denial from the President of Ukraine. However, after the genocide in Buche, the negotiations have once again drifted into the unthinkable future.
Russia, for its part, is spreading 'news' to the population about the 'crimes' of the Ukrainian army. They do not see it any other way.
In recent days, the Kremlin's propaganda has additionally latched on to the words of the Polish Minister for Culture, who said that in the current context, Russian culture, with its plays, films and books, is not desirable. This leads to a broad conclusion, which the Minister did not have in mind – to „erase“ Russian society along with culture.
According to the propagandists, this is already a question of Russia's survival. I understand what the Polish Minister wanted to say, but I do not think such a text was necessary.
I also did not like Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki's reproaches to French President Macron for his telephone calls to Putin. It is not bad to seek peace in the middle of a conflict. Moreover, we know the other side of the Macron situation.
In the presidential election, he has the back of Mrs Le Pen, who is against both France's membership of NATO and the EU. As far as we can hear, she may not want to be called Putin's friend at the moment.
In the presidential election, he has the back of Mrs Le Pen, who is against both France's membership of NATO and the EU. As far as we can hear, she may not want to be called Putin's friend at the moment.
Intuition seems to say that Macron will win the election, but what do good wishes mean these days? If only the outcome of the French elections were not a major surprise for the future security architecture of Europe (and beyond).
Lithuania's position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine is very tough. The economic sanctions offered to the aggressor are such that it will fall and never get up again.
Even though Lithuania itself will suffer, there have been proposals to relocate or rename the Lithuanian Russian Drama Theatre.
Personal opinion often turns into public opinion these days. I think that the state should not be quick to support that opinion.
I have heard, but have not seen, about a project in the Seimas to do something about the Z. Probably to punish people for painting it over. I do not believe that Z will be removed from the alphabet. What if it says 'Zoro', a famous Hollywood film starring stars next to the painted Z in brackets?
Finally, I want to go back to the beginning, or rather, to the days when forecasts did not always shoot through the roof. I was in contact with Ukrainians seeking freedom during the time of the Soviet Union and also after their country had at least formally become independent.
In informal conversations, they would ask what to do about Russia. Lithuania's (unofficial) advice was simple: don't get mixed up with the CIS. It won't do any good. You'll just get caught in the net, and it won't be easy to get out.
I would say perfect insight. But unfortunately, Ukrainian politicians got entangled, and it was only President Poroshenko who announced in 2018 that Ukraine was leaving the CIS. Nothing would have happened if this had been done right away under Yeltsin. Perhaps Ukraine would already be a member of the EU.