The Baltic Research survey, which took place on 19-31 January 2023, asked respondents to say who they would like to see as the President of Lithuania after the next elections in May 2024 - the respondents mentioned the names themselves, and no list of possible candidates was provided.
The poll showed that in January, 26% of Lithuanian adults would like to see the current head of state, G. Nausėda, as President after the 2024 elections. The percentage of the population supporting the country's leader has recently increased, with 16.9% of those polled in October 2021 expressing their wish to see Nausėda remain in office for a second term. Meanwhile, 20.4% of respondents expressed their support for the President in April last year and 18.5% in August.
Saulius Skvernelis is the second most likely to be elected President, with 8.8% of respondents saying they would like to see him in office in January. The percentage of respondents who would like to see Skvernelis elected as the country's leader varies within the margin of error: in October 2021, 8.1% of the respondents expressed such an expectation. In April 2022, 9.7%, and in August of the same year, 8.1%.
Meanwhile, the rating of the lawyer Ignas Vėgėla, who is in third place in the presidential ratings, has recently increased considerably. In January this year, 8.4% of respondents said that Mr Vėgėlė would be the most suitable person to take the position of the country's leader. In 2021, this figure was 0.6%. In April 2022, 0.7% and in August of the same year, 1.7%.
Although the fourth-ranked outgoing President, Dalia Grybauskaitė, has announced that she will not seek to lead the Presidency again, 7.4% of the respondents to the October poll would still like to see her as the country's leader.
The percentage of those who would like to see Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė in the Presidency has also increased slightly recently. In August 2022, 5.6% of respondents said that Ingrida Šimonytė would be the most suitable person to take over the post of President, while in January this year, the number of such people increased to 7%.
In January, the respondents also named Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, Chair of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) (4.3%), Remigijus Žemaitaitis, Member of the Seimas (2.5%), Rolandas Paksas, who was impeached and impeached, (2%), Arvydas Anušauskas, Minister of National Defence (1.9%), and Ramūnas Karbauskis, Leader of the Peasant Party (1.5%), as among the most suitable candidates for the presidential post. ), Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis (1.3%), Speaker of the Seimas Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (1.1%), Member of the Seimas Mykolas Majauskas (1.1%), Parliamentarian Algirdas Butkevičius (1%), MP Algirdas Butkevičius (1%), MP Mykolas Majauskas (1%), and MP Mykolas Butkevičius (1%). ), social activist Andrius Tapinas (1%), MEP Viktoras Uspaskich (0.6%), Kaunas Mayor Visvaldas Matijošaitis (0.5%), EU Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius (0.5%), and Member of the Seimas Aurelija Veryga (0.5%).
4.7% of the respondents named other candidates, while 1.7% said there were no candidates they would like to see in the office of the President. 16% of respondents did not know.
Sociologist: Choices are determined by how much politicians are mentioned in the media, the need for new faces
"Rasa Ališauskienė, sociologist and head of Baltic Research, points out that this question was open-ended - respondents had to name the people they would support in the presidential elections.
"The fact that it was an open-ended question was an important factor. In other words, we are not giving a list, and we are asking people to name themselves who they would like to see as President. It's not something that all people, of course, go into about the criteria. For example, Viktoras Uspaskichas is mentioned, and then they are surprised that he was not born in Lithuania and cannot take part in the presidential elections. It is not the candidates who are running or could definitely run, but rather what people themselves remember," R. Ališauskienė told Elta.
The sociologist points out that people taking part in the poll often name ex-premier Skvernelis or outgoing president Grybauskaitė as their preferred President, although both of them have said they will not seek the post.
"Dalia Grybauskaitė has probably said more than once that she will not run. Saulius Skvernelis has also said recently that he will not run, but people are saying they would like to see them. This is quite an important point and is different from some other surveys where people have their names already listed," she said.
R. Ališauskienė stresses that respondents also tend to single out those people who are most often mentioned in the media as the most desirable presidential candidates. The sociologist points out that the case of I. Vėgėla illustrates this perfectly.
"Media attention and whether or not those names are mentioned in the media is very important. For example, Ignas Vėgėlė appeared among people's choices when journalists started talking about him as a possible candidate," the head of Baltic Research pointed out, noting that Vėgėlė's high position in the rating table signals that some voters want to see new faces in the elections.
She stresses that another important factor for respondents is whether the candidate has already mentioned their intention to run for the Presidency. Therefore, according to the sociologist, it is also important to consider that, for example, the right-wing political forces have not yet announced who their delegates for the Presidency will be.
"There is probably little doubt among voters about Nausėda. He has not said whether he will run for a second time or not, but the incumbent President is always seen as a potential participant, at least in the next wave. As for the right-wing candidates, Šimonytė was asked, and she may not have said so specifically, but she did not rule out the possibility, and there was not much talk of others. If there is more discussion about who could be from the right, I think that we will see new names, too," said R. Ališauskienė.
"For the right, it is also important who the right-wing political parties will discuss, raise or debate. Then those sympathies may change. For now, these are very preliminary thoughts of what could be," she added.
The poll took place between 19 and 31 January 2023. The survey covered 1,023 Lithuanians (aged 18 and over) through a personal interviews at 114 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the adult population of Lithuania in terms of gender, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the people surveyed reflects the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The margin of error of the survey results is up to 3.1%.
