Presidential message after the VGT (State Security Department of the Republic of Lithuania) meeting on whether a ceasefire in Ukraine would change Lithuania's security assessment

2025 m. vasario 27 d. 12:05
Lrytas.lt
Even if a ceasefire in the Ukrainian war were to take place shortly, Lithuania's assessment of the security situation would remain unchanged, and the deadline for the creation of the division would not have to be accelerated, according to Presidential Adviser Marius Česnulevičius.
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After the State Defence Council (VGT) meeting on Wednesday, Česnulevičius said that during the meeting, the changes in Lithuania's security were discussed, and it was evaluated whether it would be necessary to adjust the previously adopted decisions on the establishment of the division until 2030.
„If we talk about the security situation, no additional threats to the Republic of Lithuania have been identified. No additional threats have been identified, or that these threats could manifest themselves earlier.
The decisions taken back in January—that by 2030, we should have prepared specific capabilities that could deter or, if necessary, defend Lithuania—remain.
„No threat says that would force us to accelerate and be prepared sooner to counter any kind of threat from Russia,“ said M. Česnulevičius.
„The VGT remained in the same position as in January. That the decision was correct and timely – yes, but whether there is a need to advance the dates – no. Have the threats decreased? So far, to date, the threats have not diminished“, he added.
The Presidential Adviser pointed out that the ceasefire in Ukraine, which would allow Russia to rebuild its capabilities and prepare for a new offensive, has been taken into account in calculating the deadline for the Lithuanian division to reach full operational capability.
„This (the ceasefire in Ukraine – aut.p.) is an essential aspect, but it was already foreseen before the decision was taken in January. The worst-case scenario that is possible, not only these but also other aspects, was calculated, and that is why the decision was taken to already have a capability in 2030.
Even a ceasefire, if it were to happen soon, would not change the assessment of the situation. This was foreseen, and it remains valid.
Some changes are possible in the years leading up to 2030. And this is where the VGT will be looking—if there are no threats, it is not excluded that preparations will even be extended. However, we do not see any positive signs today, so those decisions remain valid. However, there is no increased threat or need to rush things,“ he stressed.
The January meeting of the VGT agreed to allocate 5–6% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) annually to defence for 2026–2030.
At the time, the Head of State said that funding should be maintained at 5.5% of GDP over the four-year period. The additional allocations are needed to form an army division in Lithuania by 2030.
The VGT will return to its deliberations on withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention
Mr Česnulevičius also announced that the VGT will return to its deliberations on a possible withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines in the next few months. He said that Lithuania is currently continuing consultations with its allies.
„The same decision as before remains valid. Different organisations with different objectives are trying to influence this process. Some are trying to encourage the decision to be taken sooner and to leave the Ottawa Convention. At the same time, there are organisations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, which believe that anti-personnel landmines are an evil that should no longer be used,“ Česnulevičius said.
„The same decision remains in force today, and consultations are taking place with our neighbours in the region and allies who could potentially come to our soil if the need arises. Once these answers are ready, the MoD will return to the VGT with the army leadership. This should happen shortly, a matter of 1–3 months“, he added.
The VGT was due to discuss the withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention in January. At that time, it was decided to continue consultations with Lithuania's allies.

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