„When military movement is nearby, the chances of something being damaged increase. It is natural, and we would react in the same way. If it is related to aggression or some preparations for further actions, we will go on the defensive,“ the Minister LRT radio on Wednesday.
„The message here is also obvious to everyone – Lithuania or the other Baltic countries, I can speak for Lithuania, will certainly react suddenly to any situation, and we will certainly not spend a few weeks setting up a working group to evaluate it and to write some conclusions or recommendations. We will act immediately and are ready to do so, „ added Budrys.
According to the Minister, drones and missiles have been dropped on NATO territory on more than one occasion, and there have been other violations. He recalled previous incidents when a Russian fighter jet landed on Lithuanian territory, and a helicopter crossed the state border.
„Our protocols and response procedures are in place. Of course, the first thing that would be assessed would be what it is – whether it is an accident or a mistake, an incident or an act of aggression“, he said.
The number of troops deployed will be assessed
Budrys also stressed that the readiness for the exercise and the overall exercise scenario would be monitored.
„We have seen several exercises in ZAPAD and had our own experiences. When they are launched, are they planned and executed, what are the active phases, and what are the covert exercises? The Minister stated that the scale is always several times larger than what announced“.
„There will also be several undeclared exercises combined into a single scenario. From this, we will be able to conclude what Russia is preparing for: whether to increase interoperability with Belarus, as has been done in the past, or to rehearse some lessons learned in Ukraine with other forces and see how this could lead to NATO, or to send a strong message to us, or to prepare for possible other scenarios,“ he continued.
Budrys stressed that NATO should react in a mirror-like manner to the increased number of Russian and Belarusian troops during the exercises.
„We will have to monitor and react to all this. Not only to draw the attention of others but also to react to the increase, if any, of troops in the region. NATO needs to do the same in a mirror image (...) to ensure that Russia does not create favourable circumstances for itself for any opportunistic action“, he said.
Moscow and Minsk plan to hold a large-scale joint military exercise, Zapad, in September 2025. The exercise's official objectives are to practise joint defensive and offensive actions, improve cooperation between the armed forces, and test troops' readiness for different security scenarios.
However, these exercises raise concerns for officials in the countries bordering Russia and Belarus about possible unintentional incidents each time.
Although these exercises have been held every two years since 2009, they were cancelled in 2023. As Arvydas Anušauskas, then Minister of National Defence, explained at the time, Moscow had mobilised its full military strength for the war in Ukraine and did not have the necessary capacity to conduct the exercises.