Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister and member of the Advisory Board of the Munich Security Conference Gabrielius Landsbergis urges us not to be blinded by this move by Alexander Lukashenko, which is aimed at achieving his own goals.
In a recent comment on his blog, Landsbergis explained that we can welcome the release of 14 political prisoners by the Belarusian regime. Still, we must not forget that this is only a drop in the ocean and that political prisoners are merely bargaining chips for Lukashenko, whom he uses to secure greater benefits for himself.
„First of all, there are still more than a thousand political prisoners in Belarus, which means that Lukashenko has released less than 2% of them. Secondly, Lukashenko has still not been held accountable for the hijacking of a civilian passenger plane or for the wave of illegal migrants that he organised.
Most people have forgotten this – perhaps because it sounds like the plot of a bad film rather than reality. Thirdly, Lukashenko continues to assist Russia and support its horrific war against Ukraine,“ Landsbergis wrote.
According to the former Foreign Minister, what we are now witnessing is a consistent pattern of Lukashenko's actions in Belarus since 2000.
„First, there is a wave of repression, then arrests of opposition representatives, followed by sanctions imposed by the West.
After a while, several prisoners are released, sanctions are eased, and, most importantly, Lukashenko's political legitimacy is strengthened. He repeats this cycle every few years, maintaining his reputation as a „gatekeeper“ with whom the West must talk,“ he said.
Landsbergis recalled why sanctions were imposed on Belarus in the first place and highlighted the game Lukashenka is now playing.
„Since the rigged 2020 elections, sanctions have been imposed in several stages: first in response to the brutal repression after the polls, then because of the hijacking of a Ryanair plane in May 2021, and most recently because of cooperation in Russia's war against Ukraine.
The most painful and, therefore, most effective sanctions are those targeting the potash sector, in particular, the state-owned company Belaruskali. Potash is Belarus' most valuable export, and Belaruskali has long served as a fund for Lukashenko.
The most convenient land route for Belarusian exports runs through Lithuania, whose railways and ports offer the shortest path to the sea. Lithuania rightly argues that facilitating Belarusian trade is contrary to its national security interests and has imposed national sanctions.
This means that even if the US and EU sanctions were lifted, Lukashenko would still be unable to export his potash or anything else via Lithuania's roads, railways and ice-free port.
It should, therefore, be clear to us that Lukashenko is once again opening his old playbook and offering to exchange prisoners (hostages) for the easing of sanctions, which would be highly profitable for his regime and him,“ warned Landsbergis.
Finally, he emphasised that it is gratifying that 14 Belarusian political prisoners are no longer behind bars, but 'this must not become a pretext for abandoning common sense and succumbing to this dictator's old game. There is no reason to march to his old tune for another decade.'
„Europe must not give in to Lukashenko's cynical demands to lift sanctions, and Lithuania must continue to defend its national security. Lithuania's allies must also apply the same standards to all representatives of the axis of chaos.
No one embraces Khamenei (Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, author's note), and no one should embrace Lukashenko,“ the former minister urged.