Deividas Šlekys, a military expert and lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI) at Vilnius University, believes that specific provocations aimed at causing public panic and exerting political pressure are more likely. Meanwhile, Vilmantas Vitkauskas, Head of the National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC), emphasises that hybrid threats to Lithuania are nothing new. However, he says, it is important for the public to distinguish between confirmed facts and speculation, and to rely on information from official institutions.
Šlekys: specific provocations are more likely
According to Associate Professor Šlekys, warnings about possible Russian provocations are nothing new – such risks have been discussed for some time.
„In my view, the situation remains as it was. The point is that the Russians certainly haven’t stopped, so talk of possible provocations is nothing new,“ the military expert told ELTA.
In his view, rather than large-scale military operations, specific provocations are more likely, aimed less at causing physical harm than at instilling panic in the public and exerting political pressure.
„No one is currently planning to invade us – neither at this very moment nor this year. In this case, it is more likely that there will be specific, highly precise attacks or provocations designed not so much to cause physical harm as to sow serious panic in people’s minds,“ noted Šlekys.
According to him, Russia could use such provocations to divide Lithuanian society and undermine the unity of NATO member states.
Speaking about the recent drone incident, Šlekys highlighted the functioning of the allies’ response mechanism.
„The damage was minimal; no one was injured, and no one was killed. The operation was carried out in accordance with procedures and went very smoothly. This is how NATO operates,“ he stated.
Vitkauskas: hybrid threats are nothing new
For his part, Vitkauskas, head of the National Security and Defence Council, said Russia’s hybrid pressure on Lithuania and other European countries is not new.
„Russia’s hybrid pressure against Lithuania and other European states is not a new phenomenon. Since 2024, Lithuania has already recorded more than one attack or provocation, including sabotage, cyber and information operations,“ Vitkauskas told ELTA.
He claims that the warnings and preparatory measures taken by neighbouring and allied states are a responsible response to the current security environment.
„Early warning, institutional preparedness and public awareness reduce the impact of provocations and strengthen NATO’s overall resilience,“ stated the head of the NKVC.
When assessing specific incidents, Vitkauskas urges people to distinguish confirmed facts from speculation and rely on official information from the relevant authorities.
„According to the official information released to date, there is no evidence that the drones which entered Lithuanian airspace were targeting Lithuanian facilities,“ said Vitkauskas.
He points out that Lithuania has strengthened the protection of strategic infrastructure and that the National Cyber Security Centre (NKVC), together with the intelligence services and other relevant authorities, has issued recommendations to businesses and organisations that may be at risk of sabotage or acts of subversion.
Vitkauskas also urges the public to remain vigilant and not to spread unverified information, as kinetic incidents or provocations may be accompanied by information operations aimed at instilling fear and undermining trust in the authorities.
Martinaitis: the threat level remains unchanged
Meanwhile, Tomas Martinaitis, a Social Democrat and member of the National Security and Defence Committee (NSGK), says the level of the Russian threat remains unchanged and that Russia’s statements about possible retaliatory actions against NATO and EU member states may be intended to stir anxiety and undermine public confidence.
„If we were to assess the situation as a whole, I would say that the threat level, as confirmed by intelligence officers, has not changed. Russia remains unpredictable. Perhaps its tactics are changing slightly, and actions of a different nature are emerging, but the essence remains the same,“ Martinaitis told ELTA.
The politician also urges the public not to give credence to talk of Lithuania’s alleged lack of preparedness and not to give in to panic.
„First and foremost, there should be no panic, and there should be no talk that we are completely unprepared, that no one will defend us, or that our unity is in doubt,“ he emphasised.
ELTA notes that in recent weeks, the leaders of several European countries have spoken of the threat of possible Russian provocations.
Earlier this month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that, according to intelligence assessments, Russia may be preparing hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, and urged the public to be prepared for various scenarios.
Meanwhile, the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, also urged the public to prepare for possible drone attacks and other hybrid attacks.