However, political analyst Vytis Yurkonis thinks that both Putin and Lukashenko are aware that the direct involvement of the Belarusians in the war could backfire on them – for example, by the Belarusians siding with the Ukrainians or by organising the devaluation of the regime.
„If Lukashenko loses his main column – the power structures – then the very next day there would be a movement in Minsk, and then there would be no place to surround Ukraine from“, Jurkonis noted.
Even a few risks
Vytis Jurkonis, a political analyst at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU IAPS), said on the „Lietuvos rytas“ TV programme „New Day“ that the venue chosen for the meeting between Lukashenko and Putin was symbolic – the Vostochny Cosmodrome, 6 000km from Moscow, was a symbolic day on Cosmonautics Day.
„The aim is to show as if everything is fine, but everybody is well aware that with all the sanctions, Russian technology is lagging very far behind and is completely incapable. This is probably one of the last days of cosmonautics when they can still show something, celebrate something, and have a picture because, in the near future, it will be difficult for Russia to move in this direction to do something meaningful,“ the political analyst stressed.
Asked whether Putin could have sought direct involvement of Belarusian troops in the war against Ukraine during the meeting, Jurkonis said that Putin probably understands that such a move would probably backfire on him.
„I think there was a realignment of positions. Perhaps Lukashenko explained why it would not be wise and sensible to do this. After the failed attempt to storm Kyiv in a few days, it is clear that morale is not high in the ranks of both the Russian and Belarusian military.
Even if Putin at one time thought of pushing Lukashenko and the last support column, the Belarusian military, towards Ukraine, he is probably now realising that this could backfire. There could be more than one Kalinauskas battalion, the weapons will simply be stacked somewhere on Ukrainian territory, and the whole attack could backfire on both the Lukashenko regime and Russia itself“, the political analyst assessed.
According to him, the Belarusians are not only morally unprepared to fight the Kremlin's wars but also physically and technologically. They have little real military experience.
„It is one thing to stab your own unarmed citizens who take part in peaceful demonstrations, but it is another to fight Ukrainian soldiers defending your country. There is a growing awareness of this, especially as the Belarusian population sees the sacks coming back from Ukraine with dead Russian soldiers and overcrowded hospitals. So there is no desire to fall under the bullets,“ Jurkonis believes.
According to the political analyst, Russia would certainly need Belarus's help in the war, but both authoritarian leaders are aware of the potential risks.
„There might be a desire, but perhaps Lukashenko himself has explained that he would remain completely uncovered in such a case. Belarusian citizens are already sabotaging the railways – the mood of protest has not gone anywhere. If Lukashenko loses his main column, the power structures, then the next day there would already be some movement in Minsk, and then there would be no place to surround Ukraine from“, the political analyst stressed.
Resistance actions
Yurkonis recalled how some of the Belarusians were damaging the tracks to prevent the movement of Russian military equipment, disseminating information about the movement of Russian troops, and there were also Belarusians fighting for Ukraine, such as the Kalinauskas Battalion.
„Sociological data shows that less than 3% support the Kremlin's war in Ukraine“, he said.
For their part, Belarusians who have sided with Ukraine do not go unnoticed by the regime. According to Mr Jurkonis, the relatives of Belarusians who left Ukraine to fight are persecuted by the regime if they remain in the country.
„There are specific people in the security structures who are engaged in finding out who is in the Kalinauskas battalion. From the leaked information, we can see that faces are being shown as to who these people are, and threats are being made against their relatives. They are physically on Ukrainian territory, but their relatives and friends are still in Belarus. It is understandable that there is pressure there.
I know of cases where the relatives of Belarusian soldiers who died for Ukraine wanted to bury them in Belarus, but there were problems and obstacles to doing so,“ the political analyst said.
According to him, there is currently a huge flow of Belarusians emigrating to Europe, although the reasons for their departure are quite different.
„There is also fright. There are those who realise that the sanctions against Russia will have an impact on Belarus, and they are trying to move their assets out. The flow is huge, and it is both because of repression and because of the war. I would say that the flow is not even less than after the 2020 protests,“ Jurkonis noted.
However, the political analyst said that he doubted that Belarusians would take to the streets in protest because of the possible impact of sanctions.
„There would be a higher probability of protests if the Belarusian regime decides that some of its troops are going to the territory of Ukraine – then I have no doubt that there would be protests, and this would be an even bigger irritant than the economic situation. Because the economic situation has been bad for long enough, and the mood of protest has not gone anywhere. The main factor limiting the protests is the terror that is taking place now“, Jurkonis stressed.
